Monday, March 31, 2008

500 share MAGNA matched

KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors may be put off from acquiring high-end properties in the country as uncertainties in the global market have caused them to be risk-averse and cautious.

Analysts said foreign investors were now more apprehensive about acquiring properties and were poised to contain their risk exposure against volatile global market conditions and the new political landscape that was shaping the country.

One analyst told The Edge: “I think it is very evident that foreign investors are thinking twice about purchasing properties here this year, due to the financial uncertainties in the global market.

Already in Penang, we are seeing softening in sales in condominium units.”

The decline in demand for properties began when foreign fund managers had to cut losses in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and a declining US economy.

Moreover, prospective property owners are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, due to the political changes in the country after the recent general election.

“People want to see what moves the government would be making to boost the property scene, and they are holding back their investments now. Hence, we are seeing an over-supply of property units in the country,” an analyst said.

MIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Pong Teng Siew said the robust high-end property sector had been spearheaded by foreign investors, especially under the Malaysia My Second Home Programme, which was an initiative by the government to encourage retired foreigners to live in the country.

“However, we expect the momentum to be slowing down this year,” he said, adding that property developers would still be able to attract Singaporean and Middle Eastern investors to acquire properties here, but on a smaller scale compared to a year ago.

Additionally, another analyst said that property owners — both foreign and local alike — were now facing difficulties in renting out their properties, especially high-end ones, due to their higher rental prices.

As of December 2007, monthly rental of condominium units with floor size of 2,000 square feet that were located in the vicinity of KL City Centre could fetch between RM7,000 and RM9,000.

The analyst said: “Unlike Vietnam, whereby prospective buyers purchase property to live in, there are more buyers here that are acquiring properties to be rented out. Thus, the demand for properties may not be as sustainable.”

Subsequently, Pong said most property counters would have more downside in the short term as projects faced mounting cost pressure from steep raw material prices, and a market that might not respond coherently to the higher construction costs.

However, another analyst believed property counters still had their upside as players such as SP Setia Bhd had locked in high sales a year earlier, which would cushion the impact of lower sales this year.

“Nevertheless, the property sector is expected to be flattish in 2009, as property prices in certain segments seem to have peaked in 2007, resulting in a stabilisation process in the prices this year,” the analyst said.

On Friday, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange property index rose 8.83 points to close at 788.93 points.

From theedgedaily.com

Decided to reduce stake in properties section. Sold 500 share of MAGNA today. Profit only RM90++. Adopting Sell on Strength strategy currently. The market is still very bearish though.

To those who like to own/ buy properties (residential), perhaps it is not the time yet.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Protection Planning

Protection planning is divided into 4 parts as below
  • Income protection
  • Family security protection
  • Health care planning
  • Mortgage/ Debt cancellation

Case study

Jason, age 47 is an engineer who earns RM300,000 per annum. His wife Linda age 42 is an admin manager of an international firm earning RM100,000 per annum. They have 3 children age 13, 11 and 9. Jason parents is staying with them and so that they can take care of their children. They owned a double story linked house worth RM600,000 at Bandar Utama with a mortgage loan of RM200,000. They have two cars, one BMW driven by Jason worth RM300,000 with an outstand loan of RM200,000 and a Honda Accord driven by the wife worth RM120,000 with an outstanding loan of RM70,000. The monthly family expenses amount to RM10,000 excluding installment repayments. Currently, Jason is covered with RM500,000 critical illness whole life plan and RM1 million term insurance. They have goals to send their children to overseas for further education. Their goal is to provide an education fund of RM150,000 each for their three children. They love to go for vacation overseas once in every two years. Both are contributing to the EPF, their total contributions and savings amount to RM600,000. They want to keep the house in the event of their demise.

Task: to work out a plan to protect family security

Monthly Expenses

  • Housing loan RM 1,541.60 (Based on interest 7%pa & 20 years term loan, loan 200k)
  • Family RM10,000.00
  • Car RM 5,249.60 (BMW, based on interest 2%pa & 5 years term loan, full loan)
  • Car RM 2,099.80 (H.Accord, based on interest 2%pa & 5 years term loan, full loan)
  • Holiday RM 2,000.00 (Assume that a family trip is done in every 2 years)

Assumptions: Jason and his wife change their cars every five years; Jason owns RM400,000 from the total of RM600,000 EPF and savings amount.

Total monthly expenses = RM20,891.00

Total annual expenses = RM250,692.00

In order to maintain family living standard & also to secure education fund until the youngest child reach age 21, Jason has to secure his life for the coming 12 years.

Total expenses for 12 years = RM3,008,304.00

Education fund for 3 children = RM450,000.00

In the event of Jason's demise, his wife is still working.

Offset from Jason's wife earning for 12 years = RM100,000 x 12 = RM1,200,000.00

Jason's existing coverage + savings = RM1,500,000.00 + RM400,000.00 = RM1.9m

Shortfall of Jason's coverage = RM3m +RM450k - RM1.2m - RM1.9m = RM350,000.00

If Jason is living well until his youngest son reach age 21, their education fund will be funded by his EPF.

Each RM150,000 education fund after 6% inflation adjusted

Child (age 9) RM301,829.00

Child (age 11) RM268,627.00

Child (age13) RM239,077.00

Assume Jason put his money in an investment vehicle which will generate 4% interest pa.

Shortfall of fund needed + RM400,000 = RM188,522 + RM181,474 + RM174,691 (on 4% discount)

Amount short = RM144,687.00

Jason needs to save another RM144,687 now for his children education fund if he is living well for this upcoming 12 years.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

The truth is... finally

Transmile replaces managing director


PETALING JAYA: Transmile Group Bhd has redesignated non-executive director Liu Tai Shin as managing director to replace outgoing Wong Yoke Ming, the company told Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

It is believed Wong's resignation is a signal that the restructuring scheme at the troubled air cargo freight forwarder is almost completed.

Liu and Wong joined Transmile in June last year as part of a new team brought in to tackle the huge financial problem that arose from the discovery of massive accounting frauds over a three-year period.

Both men are accountants by training and, together with the new management, were tasked with reviving the ailing firm.

Transmile posted a loss of RM279.6mil on revenue of RM616.2mil for the year ended Dec 31, 2007. The loss was about four times bigger than the RM63.8mil reported in the previous year.

The huge write-off that contributed to last year's loss had given the company a clean slate to start over.
Recent analysts' reports suggested the company would now focus on more profitable regional routes, and that it was likely to sell the under-utilised bigger aircraft in its fleet.

StarBiz learnt that Transmile is currently looking to hire a chief executive officer to put the company back on the growth track.

While the outlook for the air cargo carrier this year remains challenging, some investors are now more willing to take a bet that the worst is over for the company.

Shares in Transmile eased seven sen, or 3%, yesterday to close at RM2.33. It was the first decline in five days, halting a rally that lifted the stock from a six-year low of RM1.51 two weeks ago.

The stock peaked at RM14.40 on Jan 3 last year.

Transmile told Bursa Malaysia on Wednesday that after “due and diligent enquiries with all its directors and shareholders,” the company “was not aware of any new reason” for the sharp spike in its share price.

Major shareholders of the company include tycoon Tan Sri Robert Kuok with a 17% stake, followed by Pos Malaysia Bhd with 15%.

There had been speculation that the group's restructuring plan would involve acquisitions of new assets, with the possibility of Pos Malaysia injecting PosLaju, its courier express business.

However, PosLaju chief operating officer Nadza Abdul told StarBiz yesterday that he was not aware of any such proposal, whether to inject, integrate or amalgamate PosLaju or any other express business of Pos Malaysia, into Transmile.

“PosLaju has not been approached by any party regarding the matter highlighted,” he said.


From biz.thestar.com.my


It really needs time to recover, from trauma injury.
Hope she will get well soon.
Now, almost all the bad debts already written off.
We will see how she dance in the next quarter.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

MUHIBAH技术分析


MUHIBAH近期飙升,三天已涨超过25%。MACD前四天交叉,且两线开始分离,升势渐成形。成交量并没大大增幅的显示,证明其票流通量甚低,炒家容易炒作,暴升或暴跌都非常之容易。ADR暂还未止跌反升,不过已经平行,是不错的反向显示。阻力在3.00,且还未突破50天平均线。大势若没唱坏,升势指日可待。

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

次贷风暴何时了?


现在是风暴的开始 还是结束?

现在是买入时机 还是静观其变?

无可否认Bad Debts Write Off会慢慢少

甚至于接下来金融公司所公布的次贷损失 也不会起太大的影响

需求下降 油价走软 屋价下跌

经济慢慢放缓

若Fed再次降息 美元将一再贬值

降息可以刺激经济?

行情再不好 钱包肯定缩紧

一些人甚至工作都没了 管你降息/升息

通膨恶化?还是通缩?

还有多少家公司会倒闭?

看来接下来的几个月 remisier/dealer又要拍乌蝇了

好消息激励不起股市 坏消息起不了多大作用
次贷风暴 到底何时了?

Monday, March 24, 2008

THE BOURNE X

BOURNE X
In cinema Oct 2008

Don't miss out


Friday, March 21, 2008

即将成为云顶国际的股东

持有1,000股Resorts
近来Resorts以10对1的配额来配售其手上的GIL股份
我理应只可买100股 但我多申请9900股
申请10,000股Genting International Limited
竟然给我全部
难道GIL有致于那么烂吗?还是太多散户没购入?
昨日闭市价0.565
购入价0.88马币
兑换新币为0.88*1.3879/3.1795=0.384
净赚0.181*10,000=1,810新币
兑换马币为4,146
难道真的有酱大只青蛙随街跳?
想想谁是Resorts的最大股东
难道赚最多的是云顶自己?
难道这叫做肥水不流外人?

P/S: 原来是自己搞错了,还是只entitle 100 share而已
Ashley啊,Ashley
下回不好再搞到我蒙查查了


第N次温习冷眼前辈的《30年股票投资心得》

纯粹在这里做一些记载 方便温习 望冷眼前辈见谅

买股票就是参股做生意 你是股东 也就是生意持有人之一
要参股 肯定会考虑一些因素
毕竟谁都不想看见辛苦存下的血汗钱化为乌有
买股票前应该问一问自己
1 这间公司做的事什么生意?
2 生意前景如何?
3 管理层素质如何?
(避免买入类似TRANSMIL或MEGAN的公司)
4 公司财务状况又如何?

本益比(PER)=多少年回本
举例一家公司每年盈利20仙 你以RM1购入
需要5年时间才能回本 所以本益比也等于5
冷眼建议以10倍本益比作为投资于大马股票的标准

每股净值(NTA
分为有形资产 如土地、工厂、机器、存货、现金
无形资产 如商誉、商标
股东基金=实收资本+储备金
每股净值=股东基金/股票数目
计算每股净值时应该扣除掉商誉(good will)
简单来说 商誉=品牌
一家授权生产商所生产出来的某品牌物品(Nike, Adidas)
销量没被影响 皆因品牌所扮演的角色
公司的NTA会跟市价有出入
20年前购买的土地可能增值
或于高峰期购入的产业可能降值 需调低价值入账 称impairment
ROE=盈利/股东基金
若重估产业 会提高股东基金 造成ROE降低
以致公司缺乏投资吸引力

周息率(D/Y)
Gross Dividend Yield = 以扣税前的股息额计算出来的周息率
Net Yield = 净周息率

真实价值(Intrinsic Value)
1. PER<10
2. Price/Book Value Ratio<1.0
3. D/Y>Fixed Deposit Rate


低点?


什么时候才是最低点?
无人能知 惟有神知
我不是神
所以我的做法是 每跌一轮 再买进 再跌再进 如此类推
当然 若这方程式用在烂臭股的话 就会跟它一起去荷兰了
而且这样做的话 你需要有一笔资金

美国的经济到底会不会衰退?
分析家都很悲观
当然 对股票前景而言 有悲观者与乐观者
美元走软 以致油价一直暴涨
油价暴涨 肯定会导致经济缓慢、通膨
经济放慢+油价暴涨=公司的业绩肯定受影响
次贷风暴 将近尾声?
我想应该如此
该公布的坏消息 都差不多了
接下来的决不会是好消息
只不过是普通新闻
经济开始放慢 公司业绩一般 甚至差过历年
股市开始慢慢放淡
等待新一轮的来临
富贵险中求
危机=商机!

Thursday, March 20, 2008

跟我去死?


那天听完DAP TALK 我的车很无辜的被这车头像奸辱了好一段路
他是前任太平国会议员
他是骂选民RETARDED的家伙
他也是因败选而怪罪于投票站没有悬挂其照片

且马华成员没有帮忙拉票的竞选人
(大佬 我在想如果投票站挂你的车头像

你会不会不止于才惨败那11千张选票
他也是说这次选举是因为反风而导致他败选
他曾说太平人很欢迎他的到来
也曾说过为太平贡献了很多 很多 很多
拜托 输了就输了 难道你不懂讲太多反而弄巧反拙?
内阁也没你的份 我可以肯定的说 PAK LAH LAH LAH LAH的决定是对的
如果你家养了一条是又吠 不是又吠的小黄 我想大家的心都会很烦

人家说 小孩的思想是最纯的 好人就是好人 坏人怎样看都是坏人
当小孩看到你是 他/她的反应会是怎么样?
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