《南洋商报》的U教育，我平时都很少会去碰它。
然而今天的一篇文章，吸引了我继续留连下去。
里边的一个句子，可以说正好引述了我当今的状况，不得不由我去思考了一下。
“害怕离开熟悉的环境，去重新开始。人往往害怕离开熟悉的环境去重新开始，虽然自己熟悉的环境并不是那么的理想。”
一些书，读完了，启发你的往往只是一句话。
一篇短文，虽然字数不多，改变你的观点的也可能只是一句话。
改变是需要勇气，放下也是需要勇气，做一项决定也同样需要勇气。
近一个月前，我不再执着。
我选择了放下而重新开始，心里真的如释重负地说。
Monday, October 20, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Monday, May 26, 2008
华安国际（1）
大马股市中的唯一红筹股---华安国际，多得Samgang于部落格介绍。
至今我仍搞不清楚，这公司老板为何会选择在大马上市。我想若选择其它地方，如香港、新加坡或大陆，其股价根本不止徘徊在这个价位。
股价从近来的最低点，接近六毛，攀爬至八毛，而现在徘徊在七毛左右。本益比大约为六，是间零负债的公司。虽然说生意要发展需要借贷，但零负债确实是我的最爱之一。
华安第一季业绩刚刚出炉，身为公司小股东之一，必然选择在第一时间过目一下其业绩报告。若业绩没符合预期，就应该考虑是否继续持有手中票数。第一眼扫过，营业额较零七年第一季暴增57%，这是预料中的事，皆因焦炭价格于第一季涨了不少。零七年焦炭价格平均人民币1266元，我假设零八年焦炭于一月的平均价为人民币1800元，三月人民币2030元，其第一季平均价接近人民币1900元，较零七年平均价涨幅高达50%！从今日钢铁网得知，焦炭于五月涨了人民币200元，钢铁厂采购价格都在2500元左右，而且大部分库存量都不是很高。第一季原油价格高涨，导致公司营运成本也提升，庆幸的是赚幅依然可以勉强维持（零七年第一季19%，零七年第四季21.3%，至零八年第一季18%），至少赚幅的下降幅度还在我可以接受的程度。
营业额的暴涨，公司归功于by-products，
- Coal gas
- Tar
- Crude benzene
- Ammonia sulfate
- Coal slime
- Middlings
Coal slime及middlings是两项新的by-products，coal washing facility于零七年五月开始运作后开始生产，作为发电厂的燃料。
做个假设，若第二季焦炭平均价为2300元，涨幅较第一季为20%。再假设第二季营业额涨幅同样为20%，业绩高达3亿4千万马币。假设转幅降至15%，盈利依然有5千万左右，扣除营运消费及税务，EPS保守可以维持在第一季的数目。这是很粗糙的预算，很多因素并没考虑在内。
- Coal gas
- Tar
- Crude benzene
- Ammonia sulfate
- Coal slime
- Middlings
Coal slime及middlings是两项新的by-products，coal washing facility于零七年五月开始运作后开始生产，作为发电厂的燃料。
做个假设，若第二季焦炭平均价为2300元，涨幅较第一季为20%。再假设第二季营业额涨幅同样为20%，业绩高达3亿4千万马币。假设转幅降至15%，盈利依然有5千万左右，扣除营运消费及税务，EPS保守可以维持在第一季的数目。这是很粗糙的预算，很多因素并没考虑在内。
Monday, May 19, 2008
Ornasteel零八年第一季度报告
大马钢铁市场分为两类，long products及flat products。Long products概括钢条、钢筋等，主要用于建筑。这是冷眼前辈的著作所提及的。
而彦武钢铁所生产的是属于flat products，即钢板。其营业额主要分为两大类：CRC (Cold-rolled Coils)及GI&PPGI (Galvanized steel & Pre-painted galvanized steel)。此类钢铁用于汽车业务、钢管及电子电器方面等。Galvanized steel应该是用于piping的。从刚出炉的第一季业绩报告，CRC的赚幅远超于GI&PPGI，各为10.4%及5.6%。
虽然钢铁价格近来居高不下，公司前景依然是我所关注的要点之一。基于原料价格（铁）、煤炭及运输费用屡创新高，全球的上游铁厂于第二季的钢铁价格（Hot-Rolled Coils）已上涨30%，而下游工业必须寻找出路把上涨成本转嫁与顾客。彦武在报告里提及会提高成品素质，但这有需要时间达成。另外，彦武也将成品价格由每季标价改为每个月计算，以转嫁成本高涨的风险于顾客群。此举相信会为公司第二季业绩赚幅保持现有原状，虽然高涨的钢铁价格会大量提高第二季的营业额。
仔细观察Cash Flow Statement，彦武持有近５千７百万的债券基金。我想这是股东们应该追究的疑问之一。股东投资于一间公司，主要是参股一起经营生意。而公司把股东基金再转投资于信托基金，这是什么道理？公司多余的现金理应善用于扩充其业务，若没此计划，难道这笔钱不就应该归还给股东吗？投资基金，若以３％佣金计算，这１百７０万又究竟进了谁的口袋？
彦武是一家零负债的公司，预测于２００８年其手头现金会有每股３４仙（资料来自Standard & Poor’s及Asia Analytica研究报告)。每股净值大约１．９０。若以季度报告的EPS计算，今年EPS预测会有24仙。以现在市价1.60计算，其本益比为6.7倍左右。种种因素都符合了低风险投资的条件，但钢铁业务是属于周期性的，全世界对钢铁的需求到底会维持多久，暂时都无人能够预测。美国经济放缓已经是一个事实，而emerging countries如中国及印度又是否能够保持着世界对钢铁的需求？四川大地震造成上万人伤亡，缅甸风灾死亡人数依然在陆续增加，这是悲剧。但抛开这些不想，现实还是得面对，悲剧后的基本建设是必然的，而大量建材的需要是肯定的。我一直想找回一些数据，究竟台湾大地震、美国卡特利纳风灾及东南亚大海啸到底对这些建材的需求造成了什么样的影响，但总是不知从何下手。
彦武股价从06年一月的50仙，一路攀爬到现在的1.60，间中达到1.80最高点。如果你问冷眼前辈，我想他一定不会叫你现在买进。毕竟反向投资是低买高卖，而在钢铁没价时、僧少粥多时买进，在高价时卖出。这道理虽然简单易懂，但人总是因为贪图近利，而依然投机无法自拔，所以股市中总是赢的人少，输的人多，跟赌场没什么分别。要战胜股市，必须由改变观念做起。回归原点，投资股市，就是参股做生意。若你认为近期或以后钢铁需求会保持在现有水平或增长，你是可以考虑买进钢铁股的。
而彦武钢铁所生产的是属于flat products，即钢板。其营业额主要分为两大类：CRC (Cold-rolled Coils)及GI&PPGI (Galvanized steel & Pre-painted galvanized steel)。此类钢铁用于汽车业务、钢管及电子电器方面等。Galvanized steel应该是用于piping的。从刚出炉的第一季业绩报告，CRC的赚幅远超于GI&PPGI，各为10.4%及5.6%。
虽然钢铁价格近来居高不下，公司前景依然是我所关注的要点之一。基于原料价格（铁）、煤炭及运输费用屡创新高，全球的上游铁厂于第二季的钢铁价格（Hot-Rolled Coils）已上涨30%，而下游工业必须寻找出路把上涨成本转嫁与顾客。彦武在报告里提及会提高成品素质，但这有需要时间达成。另外，彦武也将成品价格由每季标价改为每个月计算，以转嫁成本高涨的风险于顾客群。此举相信会为公司第二季业绩赚幅保持现有原状，虽然高涨的钢铁价格会大量提高第二季的营业额。
仔细观察Cash Flow Statement，彦武持有近５千７百万的债券基金。我想这是股东们应该追究的疑问之一。股东投资于一间公司，主要是参股一起经营生意。而公司把股东基金再转投资于信托基金，这是什么道理？公司多余的现金理应善用于扩充其业务，若没此计划，难道这笔钱不就应该归还给股东吗？投资基金，若以３％佣金计算，这１百７０万又究竟进了谁的口袋？
彦武是一家零负债的公司，预测于２００８年其手头现金会有每股３４仙（资料来自Standard & Poor’s及Asia Analytica研究报告)。每股净值大约１．９０。若以季度报告的EPS计算，今年EPS预测会有24仙。以现在市价1.60计算，其本益比为6.7倍左右。种种因素都符合了低风险投资的条件，但钢铁业务是属于周期性的，全世界对钢铁的需求到底会维持多久，暂时都无人能够预测。美国经济放缓已经是一个事实，而emerging countries如中国及印度又是否能够保持着世界对钢铁的需求？四川大地震造成上万人伤亡，缅甸风灾死亡人数依然在陆续增加，这是悲剧。但抛开这些不想，现实还是得面对，悲剧后的基本建设是必然的，而大量建材的需要是肯定的。我一直想找回一些数据，究竟台湾大地震、美国卡特利纳风灾及东南亚大海啸到底对这些建材的需求造成了什么样的影响，但总是不知从何下手。
彦武股价从06年一月的50仙，一路攀爬到现在的1.60，间中达到1.80最高点。如果你问冷眼前辈，我想他一定不会叫你现在买进。毕竟反向投资是低买高卖，而在钢铁没价时、僧少粥多时买进，在高价时卖出。这道理虽然简单易懂，但人总是因为贪图近利，而依然投机无法自拔，所以股市中总是赢的人少，输的人多，跟赌场没什么分别。要战胜股市，必须由改变观念做起。回归原点，投资股市，就是参股做生意。若你认为近期或以后钢铁需求会保持在现有水平或增长，你是可以考虑买进钢铁股的。
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Muhibbah Awarded RM80m contract
Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd (“Muhibbah” or “the Company”) Award of Contract for the Proposed Redevelopment Project for Deepwater Facilities at Quay 6 (MMHE), Pasir Gudang, Johor
The Board of Directors of Muhibbah (“the Board”) is pleased to announce that the Company has been awarded a proposed redevelopment project for Deepwater Facilities At Quay 6 (MMHE), Pasir Gudang, Johor (“the Project”) by Malaysia Marine And Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd ("MMHE") for a total contract sum of Ringgit Malaysia Eighty Million Three Hundred Thirty-Three Thousand (RM80,333,000) only.
The Project is scheduled to commence by end-April 2008 and is targeted for completion in October 2009.
Wondering if the rising material cost will squeeze up contructor's profit. Based on annual net profit margin of 6.29% in 2007, this RM80m will contribute about RM2.5m profit to 2008 and 2009 each, if the rising cost effect is thoroughly passed to the consumer. RM2.5m each year, perhaps it is a bit too little.
Noted from news that one of the major projects, SKVE may be postponed.
The Board of Directors of Muhibbah (“the Board”) is pleased to announce that the Company has been awarded a proposed redevelopment project for Deepwater Facilities At Quay 6 (MMHE), Pasir Gudang, Johor (“the Project”) by Malaysia Marine And Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd ("MMHE") for a total contract sum of Ringgit Malaysia Eighty Million Three Hundred Thirty-Three Thousand (RM80,333,000) only.
The Project is scheduled to commence by end-April 2008 and is targeted for completion in October 2009.
Wondering if the rising material cost will squeeze up contructor's profit. Based on annual net profit margin of 6.29% in 2007, this RM80m will contribute about RM2.5m profit to 2008 and 2009 each, if the rising cost effect is thoroughly passed to the consumer. RM2.5m each year, perhaps it is a bit too little.
Noted from news that one of the major projects, SKVE may be postponed.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
2007通膨率=2%？
鉴于整个世界对原产品的需求与日俱增，大马米制物品也难逃涨价的噩运。
前几天于一间旧式咖啡店用早餐，点了一碗鲜煮粿条汤。RM3.20一碗，份量不会很多，但对于一个小市镇来讲，价钱可谓不便宜。这一摊的粿条汤，吃了也好几年。今年暂时涨了两毛，相信过不久还会涨。五年前一碗RM2.20，五年后居然涨了一块钱。一年涨7.8%！
大马政府之前公布2007年通膨率为2%，不晓得此数目究竟如何计算得来。正因为人都脱离不了吃，若要衡量通膨率，以食物为标准最适当不过了。区区一碗粿条汤，通膨造就了每年平均涨价近8%。至于个人收入，是否每年又有涨8%？无可否认，人民的消费能力已变成越来越弱了。把钱放在定存，也就是让钱慢慢贬值而已。
浏览了Tony Pua的部落，这是其中一个将会于国会通过书写发问的问题。
Tony Pua meminta Menteri Kewangan menerangkan dengan teliti kaedah penggiraan kadar inflasi Negara, termasuklah jenis dan harga barang ataupun servis yang diliputi untuk mendapatkan kadar 2% bagi tahun 2007.
就看看官方是如何回复此事。
政府每每公布的数据，似乎都经过美化。GDP不知是否也是如此。人民活得比其他国家好，但事实真的是如此吗？
前几天于一间旧式咖啡店用早餐，点了一碗鲜煮粿条汤。RM3.20一碗，份量不会很多，但对于一个小市镇来讲，价钱可谓不便宜。这一摊的粿条汤，吃了也好几年。今年暂时涨了两毛，相信过不久还会涨。五年前一碗RM2.20，五年后居然涨了一块钱。一年涨7.8%！
大马政府之前公布2007年通膨率为2%，不晓得此数目究竟如何计算得来。正因为人都脱离不了吃，若要衡量通膨率，以食物为标准最适当不过了。区区一碗粿条汤，通膨造就了每年平均涨价近8%。至于个人收入，是否每年又有涨8%？无可否认，人民的消费能力已变成越来越弱了。把钱放在定存，也就是让钱慢慢贬值而已。
浏览了Tony Pua的部落，这是其中一个将会于国会通过书写发问的问题。
Tony Pua meminta Menteri Kewangan menerangkan dengan teliti kaedah penggiraan kadar inflasi Negara, termasuklah jenis dan harga barang ataupun servis yang diliputi untuk mendapatkan kadar 2% bagi tahun 2007.
就看看官方是如何回复此事。
政府每每公布的数据，似乎都经过美化。GDP不知是否也是如此。人民活得比其他国家好，但事实真的是如此吗？
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
上上策？
最近的市真是举棋不定，令人难以捉摸，何时见底根本无人知晓。大马的市还开始上演经济分析家所说的decoupling effect。开玩笑？！
这样的市，究竟采取什么策略，方为上上策？美国指数是否已筑底，相信只不过是暂时性的现象。紧接下来的报告出炉，相信会再调整一轮，甚至两、三轮。
格林斯潘至次贷问题引发后采取的应变措施，降低利率又再降（消费者那里还有本事借钱？），导致美元大幅贬值，间接造成原油及原产品价格飙涨，引发通膨效应，经济开始走软。这根本是一种循环。
利率调低（刺激经济：借贷/消费）〉通货膨胀〉消费能力降低〉经济放缓 已成定局
Fed之前资助/借USD200b于JP Morgan收购Bear Sterns，究竟动机何在？报导是说Fed不想整个美国的金融体系垮掉（一间公司倒闭，肯定会引起恐慌，以致引发连锁效应）。难道Fed是在掩盖事实的真相吗？这次贷的无底洞到底有多深，现在根本还没一个被证实的数目。治标不治本的举动，只能够暂时稳定市场。结果还是一样，只不过是快/慢知道最终答案而已。美国现在的状况就好像一个癌症病患者（subprime mortgage crisis），而这一支针（200b的美元）只能暂时止痛，让病人（美国经济）好过一点。而病人能不能够痊愈，就要看有没有新药物可治了。要不然病况只不过是被拖着而已，死亡还是最终要面对的那一回事。
我相信接下来的2008日子会是难捱的。与其成天研究股市的走向，不如努力收/赚取更多现金，等待下一个风暴的来临。因为当风暴发生时，唯有cash is money。
买股票，怕没机会？进入熊市后，好股周街都是，人家还担心你不买它呢。
当remisier/dealer拍乌蝇时、auntie回巴刹买菜时、论坛冷冷清清时、没人再跟你谈论unit trust时，那或许就是最佳买入时机。
这样的市，究竟采取什么策略，方为上上策？美国指数是否已筑底，相信只不过是暂时性的现象。紧接下来的报告出炉，相信会再调整一轮，甚至两、三轮。
格林斯潘至次贷问题引发后采取的应变措施，降低利率又再降（消费者那里还有本事借钱？），导致美元大幅贬值，间接造成原油及原产品价格飙涨，引发通膨效应，经济开始走软。这根本是一种循环。
利率调低（刺激经济：借贷/消费）〉通货膨胀〉消费能力降低〉经济放缓 已成定局
Fed之前资助/借USD200b于JP Morgan收购Bear Sterns，究竟动机何在？报导是说Fed不想整个美国的金融体系垮掉（一间公司倒闭，肯定会引起恐慌，以致引发连锁效应）。难道Fed是在掩盖事实的真相吗？这次贷的无底洞到底有多深，现在根本还没一个被证实的数目。治标不治本的举动，只能够暂时稳定市场。结果还是一样，只不过是快/慢知道最终答案而已。美国现在的状况就好像一个癌症病患者（subprime mortgage crisis），而这一支针（200b的美元）只能暂时止痛，让病人（美国经济）好过一点。而病人能不能够痊愈，就要看有没有新药物可治了。要不然病况只不过是被拖着而已，死亡还是最终要面对的那一回事。
我相信接下来的2008日子会是难捱的。与其成天研究股市的走向，不如努力收/赚取更多现金，等待下一个风暴的来临。因为当风暴发生时，唯有cash is money。
买股票，怕没机会？进入熊市后，好股周街都是，人家还担心你不买它呢。
当remisier/dealer拍乌蝇时、auntie回巴刹买菜时、论坛冷冷清清时、没人再跟你谈论unit trust时，那或许就是最佳买入时机。
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Credit Default Swap - Another type of insurance?
A credit default swap (CDS) is an instrument to transfer the credit risk of fixed income products. Using technical terms, it is a bilateral contract, in which two counterparties agree to isolate and separately trade the credit risk of at least one third-party reference entity. The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection. The seller 'guarantees' the credit worthiness of the product. In more technical language, a protection buyer pays a periodic fee to a protection seller in exchange for a contingent payment by the seller upon a credit event (such as a default or failure to pay) happening in the reference entity. When a credit event is triggered, the protection seller either takes delivery of the defaulted bond for the par value (physical settlement) or pays the protection buyer the difference between the par value and recovery value of the bond (cash settlement). Simply, the risk of default is transferred from the holder of the fixed income security to the seller of the swap. For example, a mortgage bank, ABC may have its credit default swaps currently trading at 265 basis points (bp). In other words, the annual cost to insure 10 million euros of its debt would be 265,000 euros. If the same CDS had been trading at 7 bp a year before, it would indicate that markets now view ABC as facing a greater risk of default on its mortgage obligations.
Credit default swaps resemble an insurance policy, as they can be used by debt owners to hedge, or insure against credit events such as a default on a debt obligation. However, because there is no requirement to actually hold any asset or suffer a loss, credit default swaps can also be used to speculate on changes in credit spread.
Credit default swaps are the most widely traded credit derivative product.[1] The typical term of a credit default swap contract is five years, although being an over-the-counter derivative, credit default swaps of almost any maturity can be traded.
The Bank for International Settlements reported the notional amount on outstanding OTC credit default swaps to be $42.6 trillion[[1]] in June 2007, up from $28.9 trillion in December 2006 ($13.9 trillion in December 2005).
For more info - Click Here
Info from Wikipedia
Comments: It's not the end yet for subprime mortgage crisis, the next victims will be the insurance companies. Many thanks to the person who developed this derivative, Mr Blythe Masters from JP Morgan, last time. You have made this an insolvent crisis for the time being.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
New Quarter, New Start
A report stated that manufacturing activity in US rose in March.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.6 from 48.3 in February, the institute announced Tuesday. Economists were expecting a reading of 47.5, according to a consensus compiled by Briefing.com.
A reading below 50 represents a decline in manufacturing activity while a reading above that level indicates growth.
美元贬值间接造成制造业受惠，以致外国可以更低的价格购入美国产品。数据显示制造业有所增长，可以说是伯南克之前不断降息所造成。伯南克的策略，说不定就是要通过制造业拯救回美国经济。
Swiss bank UBS AG on Tuesday reported more serious damage from exposure to the U.S. subprime crisis, saying it would post first-quarter losses of $12.1 billion and that it would seek $15.1 billion in new capital.
Switzerland's largest bank said it expects writedowns of approximately $19 billion and announced the resignation of Chairman Marcel Ospel, just as Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, announced similar writedowns of about $4 billion.
看似坏消息的消息，欧洲股市今天竟然背道而驰，一片草原；而道琼斯现在2%之间徘徊。难道次贷暂时来了一个了结？加加迷迷酱大amount的write off，肯定会打击整个世界，经济放缓相信已成定局，只是不晓得会拖多久。再来还要看看decoupling effect是否真有此事。现在银行就算采取什么措施/行动，这亏损是怎样都无能再挽救回来了。Lehman跟UBS发新股只能暂时稳住市场，避免成为第二个Bear Sterns而已。
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.6 from 48.3 in February, the institute announced Tuesday. Economists were expecting a reading of 47.5, according to a consensus compiled by Briefing.com.
A reading below 50 represents a decline in manufacturing activity while a reading above that level indicates growth.
美元贬值间接造成制造业受惠，以致外国可以更低的价格购入美国产品。数据显示制造业有所增长，可以说是伯南克之前不断降息所造成。伯南克的策略，说不定就是要通过制造业拯救回美国经济。
Swiss bank UBS AG on Tuesday reported more serious damage from exposure to the U.S. subprime crisis, saying it would post first-quarter losses of $12.1 billion and that it would seek $15.1 billion in new capital.
Switzerland's largest bank said it expects writedowns of approximately $19 billion and announced the resignation of Chairman Marcel Ospel, just as Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, announced similar writedowns of about $4 billion.
看似坏消息的消息，欧洲股市今天竟然背道而驰，一片草原；而道琼斯现在2%之间徘徊。难道次贷暂时来了一个了结？加加迷迷酱大amount的write off，肯定会打击整个世界，经济放缓相信已成定局，只是不晓得会拖多久。再来还要看看decoupling effect是否真有此事。现在银行就算采取什么措施/行动，这亏损是怎样都无能再挽救回来了。Lehman跟UBS发新股只能暂时稳住市场，避免成为第二个Bear Sterns而已。
Monday, March 31, 2008
500 share MAGNA matched
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors may be put off from acquiring high-end properties in the country as uncertainties in the global market have caused them to be risk-averse and cautious.
Analysts said foreign investors were now more apprehensive about acquiring properties and were poised to contain their risk exposure against volatile global market conditions and the new political landscape that was shaping the country.
One analyst told The Edge: “I think it is very evident that foreign investors are thinking twice about purchasing properties here this year, due to the financial uncertainties in the global market.
“Already in Penang, we are seeing softening in sales in condominium units.”
The decline in demand for properties began when foreign fund managers had to cut losses in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and a declining US economy.
Moreover, prospective property owners are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, due to the political changes in the country after the recent general election.
“People want to see what moves the government would be making to boost the property scene, and they are holding back their investments now. Hence, we are seeing an over-supply of property units in the country,” an analyst said.
MIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Pong Teng Siew said the robust high-end property sector had been spearheaded by foreign investors, especially under the Malaysia My Second Home Programme, which was an initiative by the government to encourage retired foreigners to live in the country.
“However, we expect the momentum to be slowing down this year,” he said, adding that property developers would still be able to attract Singaporean and Middle Eastern investors to acquire properties here, but on a smaller scale compared to a year ago.
Additionally, another analyst said that property owners — both foreign and local alike — were now facing difficulties in renting out their properties, especially high-end ones, due to their higher rental prices.
As of December 2007, monthly rental of condominium units with floor size of 2,000 square feet that were located in the vicinity of KL City Centre could fetch between RM7,000 and RM9,000.
The analyst said: “Unlike Vietnam, whereby prospective buyers purchase property to live in, there are more buyers here that are acquiring properties to be rented out. Thus, the demand for properties may not be as sustainable.”
Subsequently, Pong said most property counters would have more downside in the short term as projects faced mounting cost pressure from steep raw material prices, and a market that might not respond coherently to the higher construction costs.
However, another analyst believed property counters still had their upside as players such as SP Setia Bhd had locked in high sales a year earlier, which would cushion the impact of lower sales this year.
“Nevertheless, the property sector is expected to be flattish in 2009, as property prices in certain segments seem to have peaked in 2007, resulting in a stabilisation process in the prices this year,” the analyst said.
On Friday, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange property index rose 8.83 points to close at 788.93 points.
From theedgedaily.com
Analysts said foreign investors were now more apprehensive about acquiring properties and were poised to contain their risk exposure against volatile global market conditions and the new political landscape that was shaping the country.
One analyst told The Edge: “I think it is very evident that foreign investors are thinking twice about purchasing properties here this year, due to the financial uncertainties in the global market.
“Already in Penang, we are seeing softening in sales in condominium units.”
The decline in demand for properties began when foreign fund managers had to cut losses in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and a declining US economy.
Moreover, prospective property owners are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, due to the political changes in the country after the recent general election.
“People want to see what moves the government would be making to boost the property scene, and they are holding back their investments now. Hence, we are seeing an over-supply of property units in the country,” an analyst said.
MIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Pong Teng Siew said the robust high-end property sector had been spearheaded by foreign investors, especially under the Malaysia My Second Home Programme, which was an initiative by the government to encourage retired foreigners to live in the country.
“However, we expect the momentum to be slowing down this year,” he said, adding that property developers would still be able to attract Singaporean and Middle Eastern investors to acquire properties here, but on a smaller scale compared to a year ago.
Additionally, another analyst said that property owners — both foreign and local alike — were now facing difficulties in renting out their properties, especially high-end ones, due to their higher rental prices.
As of December 2007, monthly rental of condominium units with floor size of 2,000 square feet that were located in the vicinity of KL City Centre could fetch between RM7,000 and RM9,000.
The analyst said: “Unlike Vietnam, whereby prospective buyers purchase property to live in, there are more buyers here that are acquiring properties to be rented out. Thus, the demand for properties may not be as sustainable.”
Subsequently, Pong said most property counters would have more downside in the short term as projects faced mounting cost pressure from steep raw material prices, and a market that might not respond coherently to the higher construction costs.
However, another analyst believed property counters still had their upside as players such as SP Setia Bhd had locked in high sales a year earlier, which would cushion the impact of lower sales this year.
“Nevertheless, the property sector is expected to be flattish in 2009, as property prices in certain segments seem to have peaked in 2007, resulting in a stabilisation process in the prices this year,” the analyst said.
On Friday, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange property index rose 8.83 points to close at 788.93 points.
From theedgedaily.com
Decided to reduce stake in properties section. Sold 500 share of MAGNA today. Profit only RM90++. Adopting Sell on Strength strategy currently. The market is still very bearish though.
To those who like to own/ buy properties (residential), perhaps it is not the time yet.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Protection Planning
Protection planning is divided into 4 parts as below
- Income protection
- Family security protection
- Health care planning
- Mortgage/ Debt cancellation
Case study
Jason, age 47 is an engineer who earns RM300,000 per annum. His wife Linda age 42 is an admin manager of an international firm earning RM100,000 per annum. They have 3 children age 13, 11 and 9. Jason parents is staying with them and so that they can take care of their children. They owned a double story linked house worth RM600,000 at Bandar Utama with a mortgage loan of RM200,000. They have two cars, one BMW driven by Jason worth RM300,000 with an outstand loan of RM200,000 and a Honda Accord driven by the wife worth RM120,000 with an outstanding loan of RM70,000. The monthly family expenses amount to RM10,000 excluding installment repayments. Currently, Jason is covered with RM500,000 critical illness whole life plan and RM1 million term insurance. They have goals to send their children to overseas for further education. Their goal is to provide an education fund of RM150,000 each for their three children. They love to go for vacation overseas once in every two years. Both are contributing to the EPF, their total contributions and savings amount to RM600,000. They want to keep the house in the event of their demise.
Task: to work out a plan to protect family security
Monthly Expenses
- Housing loan RM 1,541.60 (Based on interest 7%pa & 20 years term loan, loan 200k)
- Family RM10,000.00
- Car RM 5,249.60 (BMW, based on interest 2%pa & 5 years term loan, full loan)
- Car RM 2,099.80 (H.Accord, based on interest 2%pa & 5 years term loan, full loan)
- Holiday RM 2,000.00 (Assume that a family trip is done in every 2 years)
Assumptions: Jason and his wife change their cars every five years; Jason owns RM400,000 from the total of RM600,000 EPF and savings amount.
Total monthly expenses = RM20,891.00
Total annual expenses = RM250,692.00
In order to maintain family living standard & also to secure education fund until the youngest child reach age 21, Jason has to secure his life for the coming 12 years.
Total expenses for 12 years = RM3,008,304.00
Education fund for 3 children = RM450,000.00
In the event of Jason's demise, his wife is still working.
Offset from Jason's wife earning for 12 years = RM100,000 x 12 = RM1,200,000.00
Jason's existing coverage + savings = RM1,500,000.00 + RM400,000.00 = RM1.9m
Shortfall of Jason's coverage = RM3m +RM450k - RM1.2m - RM1.9m = RM350,000.00
If Jason is living well until his youngest son reach age 21, their education fund will be funded by his EPF.
Each RM150,000 education fund after 6% inflation adjusted
Child (age 9) RM301,829.00
Child (age 11) RM268,627.00
Child (age13) RM239,077.00
Assume Jason put his money in an investment vehicle which will generate 4% interest pa.
Shortfall of fund needed + RM400,000 = RM188,522 + RM181,474 + RM174,691 (on 4% discount)
Amount short = RM144,687.00
Jason needs to save another RM144,687 now for his children education fund if he is living well for this upcoming 12 years.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The truth is... finally
Transmile replaces managing director
PETALING JAYA: Transmile Group Bhd has redesignated non-executive director Liu Tai Shin as managing director to replace outgoing Wong Yoke Ming, the company told Bursa Malaysia yesterday.
It is believed Wong's resignation is a signal that the restructuring scheme at the troubled air cargo freight forwarder is almost completed.
Liu and Wong joined Transmile in June last year as part of a new team brought in to tackle the huge financial problem that arose from the discovery of massive accounting frauds over a three-year period.
Both men are accountants by training and, together with the new management, were tasked with reviving the ailing firm.
Transmile posted a loss of RM279.6mil on revenue of RM616.2mil for the year ended Dec 31, 2007. The loss was about four times bigger than the RM63.8mil reported in the previous year.
The huge write-off that contributed to last year's loss had given the company a clean slate to start over.
Recent analysts' reports suggested the company would now focus on more profitable regional routes, and that it was likely to sell the under-utilised bigger aircraft in its fleet.
StarBiz learnt that Transmile is currently looking to hire a chief executive officer to put the company back on the growth track.
While the outlook for the air cargo carrier this year remains challenging, some investors are now more willing to take a bet that the worst is over for the company.
Shares in Transmile eased seven sen, or 3%, yesterday to close at RM2.33. It was the first decline in five days, halting a rally that lifted the stock from a six-year low of RM1.51 two weeks ago.
The stock peaked at RM14.40 on Jan 3 last year.
Transmile told Bursa Malaysia on Wednesday that after “due and diligent enquiries with all its directors and shareholders,” the company “was not aware of any new reason” for the sharp spike in its share price.
Major shareholders of the company include tycoon Tan Sri Robert Kuok with a 17% stake, followed by Pos Malaysia Bhd with 15%.
There had been speculation that the group's restructuring plan would involve acquisitions of new assets, with the possibility of Pos Malaysia injecting PosLaju, its courier express business.
However, PosLaju chief operating officer Nadza Abdul told StarBiz yesterday that he was not aware of any such proposal, whether to inject, integrate or amalgamate PosLaju or any other express business of Pos Malaysia, into Transmile.
“PosLaju has not been approached by any party regarding the matter highlighted,” he said.
From biz.thestar.com.my
It really needs time to recover, from trauma injury.
Hope she will get well soon.
Now, almost all the bad debts already written off.
We will see how she dance in the next quarter.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
MUHIBAH技术分析
MUHIBAH近期飙升，三天已涨超过25%。MACD前四天交叉，且两线开始分离，升势渐成形。成交量并没大大增幅的显示，证明其票流通量甚低，炒家容易炒作，暴升或暴跌都非常之容易。ADR暂还未止跌反升，不过已经平行，是不错的反向显示。阻力在3.00，且还未突破50天平均线。大势若没唱坏，升势指日可待。
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
次贷风暴何时了？
现在是风暴的开始 还是结束？
现在是买入时机 还是静观其变？
无可否认Bad Debts Write Off会慢慢少
甚至于接下来金融公司所公布的次贷损失 也不会起太大的影响
需求下降 油价走软 屋价下跌
经济慢慢放缓
若Fed再次降息 美元将一再贬值
降息可以刺激经济？
行情再不好 钱包肯定缩紧
一些人甚至工作都没了 管你降息/升息
通膨恶化？还是通缩？
还有多少家公司会倒闭？
看来接下来的几个月 remisier/dealer又要拍乌蝇了
好消息激励不起股市 坏消息起不了多大作用
次贷风暴 到底何时了？
Monday, March 24, 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
即将成为云顶国际的股东
持有1,000股Resorts近来Resorts以10对1的配额来配售其手上的GIL股份
我理应只可买100股 但我多申请9900股
申请10,000股Genting International Limited
竟然给我全部
难道GIL有致于那么烂吗？还是太多散户没购入？
昨日闭市价0.565
购入价0.88马币
兑换新币为0.88*1.3879/3.1795=0.384
净赚0.181*10,000=1,810新币
兑换马币为4,146
难道真的有酱大只青蛙随街跳？
想想谁是Resorts的最大股东
难道赚最多的是云顶自己？
难道这叫做肥水不流外人？
P/S: 原来是自己搞错了，还是只entitle 100 share而已
Ashley啊，Ashley
下回不好再搞到我蒙查查了
第N次温习冷眼前辈的《30年股票投资心得》
纯粹在这里做一些记载 方便温习 望冷眼前辈见谅
买股票就是参股做生意 你是股东 也就是生意持有人之一
要参股 肯定会考虑一些因素
毕竟谁都不想看见辛苦存下的血汗钱化为乌有
买股票前应该问一问自己
1 这间公司做的事什么生意？
2 生意前景如何？
3 管理层素质如何？
（避免买入类似TRANSMIL或MEGAN的公司）
4 公司财务状况又如何？
本益比（PER）=多少年回本
举例一家公司每年盈利20仙 你以RM1购入
需要5年时间才能回本 所以本益比也等于5
冷眼建议以10倍本益比作为投资于大马股票的标准
每股净值（NTA）
分为有形资产 如土地、工厂、机器、存货、现金
无形资产 如商誉、商标
股东基金＝实收资本＋储备金
每股净值＝股东基金／股票数目
计算每股净值时应该扣除掉商誉（good will）
简单来说 商誉＝品牌
一家授权生产商所生产出来的某品牌物品（Nike, Adidas）
销量没被影响 皆因品牌所扮演的角色
公司的NTA会跟市价有出入
20年前购买的土地可能增值
或于高峰期购入的产业可能降值 需调低价值入账 称impairment
ROE＝盈利／股东基金
若重估产业 会提高股东基金 造成ROE降低
以致公司缺乏投资吸引力
周息率（D/Y）
Gross Dividend Yield = 以扣税前的股息额计算出来的周息率
Net Yield = 净周息率
真实价值（Intrinsic Value）
1. PER<10
2. Price/Book Value Ratio<1.0
3. D/Y>Fixed Deposit Rate
买股票就是参股做生意 你是股东 也就是生意持有人之一
要参股 肯定会考虑一些因素
毕竟谁都不想看见辛苦存下的血汗钱化为乌有
买股票前应该问一问自己
1 这间公司做的事什么生意？
2 生意前景如何？
3 管理层素质如何？
（避免买入类似TRANSMIL或MEGAN的公司）
4 公司财务状况又如何？
本益比（PER）=多少年回本
举例一家公司每年盈利20仙 你以RM1购入
需要5年时间才能回本 所以本益比也等于5
冷眼建议以10倍本益比作为投资于大马股票的标准
每股净值（NTA）
分为有形资产 如土地、工厂、机器、存货、现金
无形资产 如商誉、商标
股东基金＝实收资本＋储备金
每股净值＝股东基金／股票数目
计算每股净值时应该扣除掉商誉（good will）
简单来说 商誉＝品牌
一家授权生产商所生产出来的某品牌物品（Nike, Adidas）
销量没被影响 皆因品牌所扮演的角色
公司的NTA会跟市价有出入
20年前购买的土地可能增值
或于高峰期购入的产业可能降值 需调低价值入账 称impairment
ROE＝盈利／股东基金
若重估产业 会提高股东基金 造成ROE降低
以致公司缺乏投资吸引力
周息率（D/Y）
Gross Dividend Yield = 以扣税前的股息额计算出来的周息率
Net Yield = 净周息率
真实价值（Intrinsic Value）
1. PER<10
2. Price/Book Value Ratio<1.0
3. D/Y>Fixed Deposit Rate
低点？
什么时候才是最低点？
无人能知 惟有神知
我不是神
所以我的做法是 每跌一轮 再买进 再跌再进 如此类推
当然 若这方程式用在烂臭股的话 就会跟它一起去荷兰了
而且这样做的话 你需要有一笔资金
美国的经济到底会不会衰退？
分析家都很悲观
当然 对股票前景而言 有悲观者与乐观者
美元走软 以致油价一直暴涨
油价暴涨 肯定会导致经济缓慢、通膨
经济放慢+油价暴涨=公司的业绩肯定受影响
次贷风暴 将近尾声？
我想应该如此
该公布的坏消息 都差不多了
接下来的决不会是好消息
只不过是普通新闻
经济开始放慢 公司业绩一般 甚至差过历年
股市开始慢慢放淡
等待新一轮的来临
富贵险中求
危机=商机！
无人能知 惟有神知
我不是神
所以我的做法是 每跌一轮 再买进 再跌再进 如此类推
当然 若这方程式用在烂臭股的话 就会跟它一起去荷兰了
而且这样做的话 你需要有一笔资金
美国的经济到底会不会衰退？
分析家都很悲观
当然 对股票前景而言 有悲观者与乐观者
美元走软 以致油价一直暴涨
油价暴涨 肯定会导致经济缓慢、通膨
经济放慢+油价暴涨=公司的业绩肯定受影响
次贷风暴 将近尾声？
我想应该如此
该公布的坏消息 都差不多了
接下来的决不会是好消息
只不过是普通新闻
经济开始放慢 公司业绩一般 甚至差过历年
股市开始慢慢放淡
等待新一轮的来临
富贵险中求
危机=商机！
Thursday, March 20, 2008
跟我去死？
那天听完DAP TALK 我的车很无辜的被这车头像奸辱了好一段路
他是前任太平国会议员
他是骂选民RETARDED的家伙
他也是因败选而怪罪于投票站没有悬挂其照片
且马华成员没有帮忙拉票的竞选人
（大佬 我在想如果投票站挂你的车头像
你会不会不止于才惨败那11千张选票）
他也是说这次选举是因为反风而导致他败选
他曾说太平人很欢迎他的到来
也曾说过为太平贡献了很多 很多 很多
拜托 输了就输了 难道你不懂讲太多反而弄巧反拙？
内阁也没你的份 我可以肯定的说 PAK LAH LAH LAH LAH的决定是对的
如果你家养了一条是又吠 不是又吠的小黄 我想大家的心都会很烦
人家说 小孩的思想是最纯的 好人就是好人 坏人怎样看都是坏人
当小孩看到你是 他／她的反应会是怎么样？ Click Here
Friday, January 11, 2008
2008第一劫
跨入2007之时，中了一单 （这是车祸）
再跨入2008，又来一单
两单都巧合的发生在一月
发生于昨晚11时左右 位于Saraka Apartment附近 林伯被五个马来仔抢劫
当时正于途中取车 背着手提电脑
走到车那一阵子 一如往常把电脑放到Driver Seat后面
关门、接着打开Driver Seat的门 坐进车里
就在要把车门关上的那一刻 三辆类似EX5的摩托车由远至近飚来
飙车党司空见惯 也就没什么稍加留意 更何况太平的飙车党是整百辆聚集的
想都没想到三辆摩托车突然停在车后 其后两乘客及速跳下 冲向我来
（我真的怎样想也没想到酱紫的事情会发生在自己身上，
看戏就看得多，Forwarded mail也读得很多）
未来得及把门关上 其一拦住车门 另一人命令把车匙交给他
"bagi kunci kereta"
与他争执一阵子 对方露出刀 唯有屈服于他
此刻拦住车门之人搜索前裤袋 搜索来 搜索去 竟然什么都搜索不成
两人把我拖出车 持刀之人过后再把刀指向背脊
"mau bagi tak" 这句口头禅不知在脑海中不懂重复了多少次
持刀之人以为我久久不肯屈服 （大佬 我站在那里动都不敢动啦 你的leng找不到 竟然怪罪在我身上）
当他把刀指向肚子那一刻 基于自然反应 竟然右手握着他的刀刃 还好刀并不锋利
（真的有够怕那傻海一刀刺进去）
两者以为我要反抗 一刀割在我手心上 再来一个超级无敌钢盔一击 整个人刹那间blank掉一阵子
（还好中/大学时头被球击中无数次 这一击还不致于让我昏掉）
过后也不晓得如何把钱包挖给他们
离开前持刀之人还不懂骂了什么东西 过后其中一位有把东西丢掉
庆幸隔天Security Guard把钱包与车匙找回 当时也还好他们没把电脑拿掉
治安不良 政府腐败 无可奈何
再跨入2008，又来一单
两单都巧合的发生在一月
发生于昨晚11时左右 位于Saraka Apartment附近 林伯被五个马来仔抢劫
当时正于途中取车 背着手提电脑
走到车那一阵子 一如往常把电脑放到Driver Seat后面
关门、接着打开Driver Seat的门 坐进车里
就在要把车门关上的那一刻 三辆类似EX5的摩托车由远至近飚来
飙车党司空见惯 也就没什么稍加留意 更何况太平的飙车党是整百辆聚集的
想都没想到三辆摩托车突然停在车后 其后两乘客及速跳下 冲向我来
（我真的怎样想也没想到酱紫的事情会发生在自己身上，
看戏就看得多，Forwarded mail也读得很多）
未来得及把门关上 其一拦住车门 另一人命令把车匙交给他
"bagi kunci kereta"
与他争执一阵子 对方露出刀 唯有屈服于他
此刻拦住车门之人搜索前裤袋 搜索来 搜索去 竟然什么都搜索不成
两人把我拖出车 持刀之人过后再把刀指向背脊
"mau bagi tak" 这句口头禅不知在脑海中不懂重复了多少次
持刀之人以为我久久不肯屈服 （大佬 我站在那里动都不敢动啦 你的leng找不到 竟然怪罪在我身上）
当他把刀指向肚子那一刻 基于自然反应 竟然右手握着他的刀刃 还好刀并不锋利
（真的有够怕那傻海一刀刺进去）
两者以为我要反抗 一刀割在我手心上 再来一个超级无敌钢盔一击 整个人刹那间blank掉一阵子
（还好中/大学时头被球击中无数次 这一击还不致于让我昏掉）
过后也不晓得如何把钱包挖给他们
离开前持刀之人还不懂骂了什么东西 过后其中一位有把东西丢掉
庆幸隔天Security Guard把钱包与车匙找回 当时也还好他们没把电脑拿掉
治安不良 政府腐败 无可奈何
Saturday, January 05, 2008
回顾2007
从100%个股回酬
到30%投资组合回酬
再到-15%投资组合回酬
一路走来 有赚到不知不觉的 也有亏到不知不觉的
皆因一个贪字
胜利冲昏了头 就盲目交易
投资 还是回原始吧
2008经济铁定会被美国连累
种植股，石油，高档产业还可以
汽车股，中低档产业就没那么看好了
就让时间来验证一切
到30%投资组合回酬
再到-15%投资组合回酬
一路走来 有赚到不知不觉的 也有亏到不知不觉的
皆因一个贪字
胜利冲昏了头 就盲目交易
投资 还是回原始吧
2008经济铁定会被美国连累
种植股，石油，高档产业还可以
汽车股，中低档产业就没那么看好了
就让时间来验证一切
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